Analyst Rekt Capital predicts a potential 30% Bitcoin retracement before the upcoming halving event based on historical data but advises cautious preparation.
Key Takeaways
- Pre-halving phase could see Bitcoin retracting by approximately 30%, says analyst Rekt Capital.
- Historical analysis indicates fluctuations between 24% to 38% retracements in past pre-halving periods.
- The depth of retracement may lessen as we move closer to the halving event, decreasing over time.
- Critical watchpoints include the lower high resistance level and maintaining support above moving averages.
In a meticulous analysis of historical data and trends, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital unfolds a scenario where Bitcoin might witness a retracement of around 30% in its price in the lead-up to the anticipated halving event. The “pre-halving” phase, recognized for its increased volatility and swinging price movements, has historically been a period where both upward and downward price adjustments are commonplace.
Good morning ☕️
Why did Bitcoin retrace? Well take a look at the USD inflows to exchanges. There has not been an increase in the last 30 days, so in a sense the move up could not be sustained as the amount of new fiat coming in did not meet the increased demand for a bigger push… pic.twitter.com/BePNAw9Uja
— Crypto DeGen (@CryptoNews_eth) October 3, 2023
Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Rekt Capital draws parallels to previous Bitcoin halving cycles, notably in 2015 and 2019, which experienced retracements ranging between 24% and 38%. He extrapolates this data to suggest a potential 30% retracement in the current scenario, although he underscores that the depth of the retracement may vary as we edge closer to the halving event.
Quoting the analyst, “Make the most of any Pre-Halving downside So that you can fully enjoy the Post-Halving upside.”
Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the percentage of retracement tends to dwindle as time progresses – for instance, a 26% retracement could be observed in December 2023, diminishing to approximately 19% by February 2024. The lower high resistance level stands out as a pivotal point to monitor, as Bitcoin has historically showcased substantial volatility around this mark, occasionally breaching it momentarily. Preserving support above specific moving averages during this pre-halving interval is also deemed vital.
Despite the looming possibility of a crash or retracement during this critical 140-day period, Rekt Capital notes that it may also represent the final opportunity for a significant pullback before the crypto market propels into a post-halving rally.
Concluding Thoughts
As the crypto community tightens its seat belts for a potential 30% retracement in Bitcoin prices, it is imperative to underscore that predicting exact market movements, especially in the extraordinarily volatile crypto space, is fraught with complexity. Historical trends may not always lay down a reliable pathway for future market movements, and a multitude of other factors could interplay in determining the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
While the insight provided by Rekt Capital offers a guideline based on previous market behaviors, investors and traders should approach this projection with a blend of caution and strategy, ensuring that their moves are also informed by a range of other market analyses and their individual risk tolerance. In the oscillating world of cryptocurrency, being prepared for a multitude of scenarios ensures that one is not caught off guard by the market’s abrupt sways.
